By Jessica Bledsoe
The late President Ronald Reagan took the role of venerated hero, former President Bill Clinton that of charming best-selling author, but current President Bush may have to wait for his time in the limelight.
According to a New York Times/CBS News poll on Monday, Bush”s approval ratings reached the lowest of his time in office at 42 percent. The telephone poll surveyed 1,053 adults, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Matthew Burbank, associated professor of political science at the University of Utah, said because of the sampling size, this poll would be a fairly good indication of how voters feel nationwide, including Utah.
“President Bush”s support will be higher in Utah than in national polls…but it is probably lower than in was previously,” Burbank said. “The nature of presidential approval ratings tends to respond fairly dramatically to people”s perceptions of certain factors.”
Burbank said the economy and any dramatic event, such as the war in Iraq, are crucial elements of public opinion. Although the economy is recovering, public perception is lagging. The recent bombardment of negative news surrounding Iraq, such as the Abu Ghraib prison scandal, has also tainted perception of the war.
Traditionally, a spring approval rating below 50 percent makes for a difficult recovery before November”s elections, Burbank said. However, Bush has the power of incumbency and 36 percent of poll respondents said they still have no opinion of opponent Sen. John Kerry.
The ratings poll was conducted before the unexpected early transfer of power to Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi on Monday. While this successful changeover may quell some critics, US troops will still serve as the main peacekeeping force in the country, causing Iraq to be a continued issue for the Bush campaign.
The poll found divided views of the US presence in Iraq, with 54 percent saying the US should remain in Iraq “as long as it takes” and 40 percent saying the United States should leave “as soon as possible.” Approval of how the war is being conducted is down to 52 percent from 90 percent in December 2001.
Burbank said these results might contain measurement errors because of question phrasing.
“The important question is what terms you use because all of that terminology is going to matter,” Burbank said.
Another sore spot for the Bush administration is findings from the 9/11 Commission suggesting severe communication failure.
Filmmaker Michael Moore”s controversial new film “Fahrenheit 9/11″ has stoked the fire with allegations that the Bush administration had intimate dealings with influential Middle Eastern families, including the bin Ladens. It also questions the administration”s handling of the war in Iraq.
“Fahrenheit 9/11” earned $23.9 million opening weekend, a record for a documentary. In an interview with PBS talk show host Travis Smiley, Moore said people from across the political spectrum are watching his film.
“After seeing all the numbers, all the exit polls and surveys they do of people coming to see it, it was clear to me that a lot of people in this country want some questions answered, and are unhappy about what”s going on,” Moore said.
Analysts also debated the impact of former President Bill Clinton”s book on Bush”s approval ratings. The autobiography, “My Life,” sold a record 400,000 copies in the first day of sales.
Some said Clinton”s reemergence into the limelight would increase comments from his critics, making Bush shine.
However, Burbank said he thinks Clinton”s book has had no effect on the polls.
“If you look at the polls, most people have very strong views already on President Bush,” Burbank said. “They are not going to change, but rather…reinforce the view they already have.”
Despite comments against Bush, and $60 million spent on television advertising, Kerry has still been unable to woo voters. Kerry”s support is 42 percent compared to Bush”s 43 percent and independent Ralph Nader”s 5 percent.
