Unranked BYU favored against No. 14 San Diego State

The unranked BYU men’s basketball team is currently favored to win against No. 14 ranked San Diego State, according to ESPN Analytics.

ESPN’s matchup predictor says BYU’s likelihood of winning is 63% compared to 37% for San Diego State.

ESPN Analytics

So, how can an unranked team be favored to win over a top 25 team?

The percentages make sense when you look at the statistics from the team’s opening games.

Last Monday, SDSU played Fullerton College and BYU faced Houston Christian. Both teams walked away with their first wins of the season, but the Cougars played the better game statistically.

Team stat comparison from Nov. 6, 2023

San Diego StateBrigham Young
Points Per Game83.0110.0
Points Against57.063.0
Field Goal %45.247.6
Rebounds Per Game42.059.0
Assists Per Game19.027.0
Blocks Per Game5.01.0
Steals Per Game12.07.0
StreakW1W1
Data by ESPN

The Cougars did better than the Aztecs in points, field goal percentage, rebounds and assists.

ESPN Analytics uses current season stats to create their Matchup Predictor. Because both teams have played only one game, there is not much data to pull from to create a winning prediction. As the season goes on the statistics become more representative of a team and the Matchup Predictor becomes more accurate.

Overall, the Cougar’s blowout win against HCU gives them a statistical advantage over SDSU.

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