PHOENIX — BYU enters its Saturday night game against Arizona on a three-game win streak after handing No. 23 Kansas its third-worst loss since 1900.
But a trip to Tucson may be its toughest challenge yet.
Arizona is 11-2 at home this season, and the McKale Center’s electric atmosphere has made it one of the most difficult and loudest places to play for opponents.
For BYU, this game isn’t just about extending a win streak — it’s a chance to solidify an NCAA Tournament berth. A win in Tucson would be a major boost to the Cougars’ résumé.
At 18-8 overall and 9-6 in conference play, BYU sits fifth in the Big 12 standings. The resume is solid, but with only a few games left before the Big 12 tournament, every win matters — especially against a team of Arizona’s caliber.
As of Friday morning, ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has BYU safely in the field as an 11-seed, but there’s little room for error. A Quad 1 road win over the Wildcats would provide a major boost, while stumbling down the stretch could leave BYU sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
It should be noted that BYU is currently 4-5 in Quad 1 games and another win in a tough environment like the McKale Center could significantly improve the Cougars' seeding.
So how do they pull it off?
1. The Magic Number
Arizona has played 26 games this season and the Wildcats have been nearly unbeatable when surpassing 80 points, with a 14-1 record in those games.
Coach Tommy Lloyd’s high-powered offense has been the driving force behind that success, as the Wildcats thrive on getting out in transition and scoring quickly, putting constant pressure on opposing defenses. When they fail to hit that 80-point mark, however, their record slips to 4-7.
Oddly enough, BYU mirrors Arizona's trend. The Cougars are also 14-1 when they hit the 80-point mark and 4-7 when they do not.
It sure seems as if the race to eighty could be a key factor in who comes out on top.
2. Live and Die by the Three
Now, while both teams play at a pretty fast pace, BYU relies much more on the 3 compared to Arizona.
BYU averages about 10.5 three-pointers made per game (No. 9 in NCAA) on 28.8 attempts (No. 20 in NCAA). In comparison, Arizona makes 6.6 (No. 304) threes per game on 21.3 attempts (No. 242 in NCAA).
The Cougars are 3-5 in true road games this season. In the five losses, they shot an average of 31.8 percent from three on 8.4 makes per games. In the three wins, they were 41.6 percent from three on 11.7 makes per game.
In essence, the 3-ball will need to be falling for BYU to have a realistic shot at an upset win.
3. Keep Love Contained
Standout Arizona guard Caleb Love may not be having his best statistical season, but he remains the player to watch for Arizona. The reigning Pac-12 Player of the Year is averaging 16 points per game on 38% shooting overall, with a 30% clip from three.
While those numbers don’t jump off the page, Love’s ability to get hot in a hurry makes him a constant threat.
The North Carolina transfer played a pivotal role in the Tar Heels' run to the national championship game in 2022, where he was at his best during the NCAA Tournament. His ability to create his own shot from deep was deadly and despite his current struggles, he still takes over eight threes per game, demonstrating his confidence hasn’t wavered.
In fact, Love’s potential for a breakout performance was on full display during Arizona’s first meeting against BYU, where he made four threes in a 85-74 win in Provo.
When he is on, he is an absolute game-wrecker.