The Daily Universe predicts BYU’s NCAA tournament fate

With just a couple of days until BYU’s matchup against VCU — set for Thursday at 2:05 p.m. MDT — the Daily Universe assembled a panel, composed of Quentin Carney, Zach Hansen, Kellen Chubak, Tori Haubner and Courtnie Jex, to make predictions on the Cougars' tournament run.

Here are their predictions for BYU’s chances in this year’s March Madness.

Who will be the standout player for BYU in the tournament?

Photo by BYU Photo

Carney: I'm going to go with Richie Saunders. March Madness consistently sees teams relying on their best player to stay in games, and I think BYU has full confidence it can rely on Saunders to create a basket for himself when needed. Plus, I have a feeling that as Saunders gets targeted more, BYU will see Trevin Knell, Mawot Mag, and Dawson Baker getting wide-open 3s, which will cause huge problems for opposing teams.

Hansen: There’s no saying who will have a great game for BYU, but one thing is certain: if BYU wants to advance past VCU, the guards have to play well. Dallin Hall and Egor Demin have to be aggressive bringing the ball up the court if BYU has a chance of winning. It’ll be interesting to see who stands out for BYU, but whoever it is, they need to make a difference from the start of the game.

Haubner: Probably Richie Saunders. He’s been incredible lately. But Keba Keita has also been super impactful on the defense and in building hype and energy for the team. His block against Iowa State when BYU was trailing 71-68 in overtime is a great example of this.

Jex: I feel like it’s hard to pick one standout player right now because there’s always someone who surprises us. For BYU to pull off a win against VCU, the Cougars need to control the ball better. I’d love to see more from Baker and Knell with their 3-pointers. Additionally, I’d like to see more assertiveness on offense and increased aggression on defense. I’m excited to see who steps up as the standout player, but for now, I’ll say Dallin Hall or Richie Saunders.

Chubak: The obvious answer is Richie Saunders. When he’s playing well, BYU has a good chance of winning. Saunders can make a permanent name for himself in BYU history if he continues his dominant run, which has led the Cougars to 13 wins in their past 16 games.

Which player do you think will exceed expectations the most?

Carney: I'm going to go with Keita here. In BYU’s double-overtime win against Iowa State, Keita’s rebounding somehow compensated for the ridiculously high 29 turnovers BYU committed in that game. Considering VCU is a defensive team that ranks in the top 30 in many defensive metrics, including steal rate, Keita’s performance against Iowa State provides plenty of confidence that BYU can weather the storm due in large part to Keita. To me, BYU will need Keita’s athleticism, combined with his ability to dominate the boards, if it wants to win against VCU, especially since the Rams feature two 6-foot-10 big men in their starting lineup.

Hansen: The name to watch here is Max Shulga on VCU; Shulga is coming off of winning the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year honors. He averaged 15.5 points per game this season. Shugla spent three seasons at Utah State University before he followed then USU head coach Ryan Odom to VCU. Shulga is the perfect example of the type of guard who is successful during March, his ability to shoot, defend, and be a playmaker is special. It will be interesting to see who BYU has defend Shulga throughout the game, with Mawot Mag being the most likely choice.

Haubner: I’m a huge believer in Trey Stewart. I feel like when the chemistry is off, BYU head coach Kevin Young puts Stewart in and it fixes everything. BYU always seems to find a flow when Stewart plays and I think that will continue in the tournament.

Jex: I’m honestly not sure what my own expectations are for the VCU game. But I’d love to see better ball control, more 3-pointers, more blocks, and just more confidence across the board. That being said, I think the player who exceeds expectations in this game will likely be one of the seniors. We’ve seen Stewart come up with huge blocks, and we know he can shoot from beyond the arc.

Chubak: When BYU is playing well, a large part of it has to do with the play of Trevin Knell. As a veteran presence in the Cougars' locker room, I think he’ll be relied upon to help BYU get past the opening round with his 3-point shooting ability. He played a big role in helping BYU beat Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament, going 4 of 4 from three and posting a perfect field goal percentage. Watch out for him against VCU.

How far do you see BYU advancing in the tournament?

Photo by Wilson Gustaveson

Carney: I'm going to say Elite Eight, with BYU losing to Duke. I always love filling out brackets without taking it too seriously, so part of me just wants to say BYU wins it all. But realistically, I still believe that BYU does have a deep run in them. Not only has BYU been red-hot, but I also believe it comes in looking to avenge the demons of last year’s loss to Duquesne against VCU, who comes from the same Atlantic 10 conference. I think the Cougars have shown that they’re not afraid to rely on the 3 and play fast, which they'll need to do against No. 3-seeded Wisconsin and No. 2 Alabama. Ultimately, I think BYU will perform well, but its eventual loss to Duke will mirror previous losses to Houston.

Hansen: Funny enough, it looks as though BYU’s toughest matchup within the first few rounds of the NCAA tournament is in the round of 64 against VCU. VCU is a nightmare matchup stylistically for the Cougars. They play physical defense, they trap and they are great at blocking shots at the rim. BYU matches up better with Wisconsin in the round of 32, but the Cougars have to play their best game of the season in order to advance. The verdict: BYU narrowly beats VCU on Thursday but loses against Wisconsin in the round of 32 on Saturday.

Haubner: Sweet 16 at minimum. But I will admit, I don’t know a ton about Wisconsin’s basketball program. Still, I’m picking BYU to make it past the Badgers and to at least make it to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2011.

Jex: I might be a little optimistic here, but in my first bracket, I have BYU going all the way. I’m still learning a lot about the NCAA Tournament and just how tough the competition is. On campus, there’s been a lot of talk about BYU being the “underdog,” and I truly believe being the underdog isn’t the worst thing. Don’t sleep on the Cougars — they’re cooking up something special, and we’ll see it soon enough.

Chubak: Loss in the second round to Wisconsin. As much as I want to believe, I still think that demons from the past will continue to haunt BYU in March Madness. I expect the Cougars to advance past the round of 64 for the first time in over a decade, but I think it will end there. Wisconsin’s John Tonje has had an incredible season, and as a senior, he’ll be motivated to put the Badgers on his back in his final games and lead them far. If they get to this point, the key for the Cougars to winning this game and advancing to the Sweet 16 will be their ability to stop Tonje and stay disciplined, as Wisconsin is one of the best free-throw teams in the country.

Who are your picks for the Final Four?

Carney: Iowa State, St. John's, Duke and Tennessee. I believe Duke will win it all. Despite Cooper Flagg’s absence, the Blue Devils still claimed the ACC title, which is scary given how talented Flagg is. Duke’s NBA-level talent will ultimately lead to a championship over a Rick Pitino led St. John's team.

Hansen: Florida, Louisville, Arizona and Houston. I have Houston winning it all. Houston’s ability to shut teams down with their defense is going to be too much for many teams to handle. A national championship of Houston vs. Florida is where I’m at right now, with Houston winning its first title under head coach Kelvin Sampson.

Haubner: Houston, Michigan State, Florida, Alabama. I’m hoping Houston wins because it will look better for BYU if it does. Plus, Houston’s defense is insane.

Jex: Auburn, Memphis, Tennessee and BYU. I’m currently making more brackets because I don’t have the perfect one yet, but in the bracket I’ve completed, I have the Cougars winning it all.

Chubak: Auburn, St. John’s, Houston, Wisconsin. I’m a big fan of redemption arcs and have the Auburn Tigers winning their first national title in program history. Last year, the Tigers were upset as a No. 4 seed against No. 13 Yale, which should light a fire under them this tournament. I think Auburn has the easiest path to the Final Four and will benefit greatly from a hungry Johni Broome, who has been one of the best players in the NCAA this season.

What’s your prediction for the final score of BYU’s game against VCU?

Photo by BYU photo

Carney: 67-59, BYU wins. I think the game will likely start with neither team making many shots, keeping it tight. However, in the second half, the Cougars will start finding open looks as BYU adjusts to VCU’s defense and will rely on Keita to create second-chance points for the Cougars.

Hansen: 78-74. The Cougars will have a much harder time scoring points against a tough VCU defence. My prediction is that BYU will have to have a great 3-point shooting night and that they stay under 12 turnovers in order to win.

Haubner: 86-67 BYU. Just as long as the Cougars don’t fall apart, they’ll be just fine.

Jex: I think this game will be close, but I believe BYU will come out strong from the start. My prediction is that BYU will win with a score of 84–76.

Chubak: 71-65 BYU. The Cougars have been one of the hottest teams in the nation over the past several weeks and I don’t think a VCU team that hasn’t faced a top-25 opponent this season will be enough to put an end to that. VCU is a very defensive-minded team, with most of their games ending in low-scoring battles, but BYU’s depth will be too much for them to handle. I expect BYU to win a close, low-scoring game.