Sweet 16 preview: No. 6 BYU faces No. 2 Alabama
NEWARK, N.J. — For the first time in 14 years, and only the third time since 1981, the BYU men's basketball team will play in the Sweet 16 Thursday at the Prudential Center, home of the NHL's New Jersey Devils.
The Cougars' opponent? An Alabama team that is playing in its third Sweet 16 in a row, fresh off of a Final Four appearance last season.
While the No. 6 Cougars are an underdog against the No. 2 Crimson Tide, this game should be an offensive masterclass, and many pundits are claiming, "first to 100 wins."
By the numbers
BYU is the second-lowest ranked Kenpom team remaining in the tournament at No. 24. Alabama comes in at No. 6, but the offensive numbers for both teams are a lot more close.
Both teams rank in the top 10 in offensive rating, with Alabama at No. 5 and BYU at No. 9. Alabama plays a lot faster, the fastest of any team in the country, with its adjusted tempo being leagues ahead the next fastest.
Alabama scores 90.8 points per game, 9.5 more than a BYU team that still scores some of the most points per game than any team in the country.
BYU does shoot better from 3-point range than the Tide with a similar amount of attempts per game, but Alabama has more go-to scorers. In total, Alabama has five double-digit scorers in its rotation, compared to BYU's two.
Comparing leading scorers
Mark Sears leads the way for Alabama, averaging 18.6 points per game and a staggering 21.5 points per game last year. He was a consensus first-team All-American this year after making the second-team in 2024.
On the other end, BYU's Richie Saunders shocked the college world with his level of play, earning the Big 12's Most Improved Player this season, and winding up on the All-Big 12 first-team.
Saunders has had an incredible tournament so far, scoring 25 points in the historic win against Wisconsin on Saturday.
Both players have had a different path to the Sweet 16, but both players have shown that they are capable of being go-to guys on winning teams.
Matchup to watch
Grant Nelson versus Mawot Mag... and whoever comes after Mag.
BYU is a relatively small team. Mihailo Boskovic is the tallest Cougar, checking in at 6-foot-10. Alabama's Grant Nelson, who is nearly 7-feet tall, and was a key piece in the Tide's 2024 Final Four run, will pose a problem for the Cougars.
Expect Mag to take the opening assignment for BYU, and likely Boskovic once Mag goes out. Mag played incredible defense on the final stop against Wisconsin on Saturday, but this job will be completely different.
Trey Stewart, BYU's other lockdown perimeter defender, is probably too small to take the assignment. BYU coach Kevin Young will have to get creative in his quest to keep Nelson quiet.
Final predictions
While BYU has shown that it can win shootouts — the Cougars beat Iowa State 96-92 and Arizona 96-95 — Alabama is a different beast.
The combination of athleticism and scoring options that Alabama possesses will be too much for BYU.
Alabama 91, BYU 82.
BYU will be able to score against the Tide. If the Cougars have another shooting performance like they did against Wisconsin — 49.2% FG, 46.2% 3-pt FG, 93.8% FT — they can beat Alabama, but if the shooting comes down to Earth a bit, Alabama will come away with the victory.