BYU is 3-0! Wait, BYU is 3-0?
Despite being picked by multiple outlets, analytics machines and the very writer of this weekly article, BYU has found itself unscathed through non-conference play. It wasn't always the prettiest, but there really isn't a better spot to be in if you're a football team.
However, the Cougars are set to face their toughest test of the season on Saturday night when the No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats come to town.
This game has it all: White-out throwback jerseys, a late-night kickoff in September, a new Cougartail flavor and a ranked conference opponent in the house. The only thing that could mess this up is if BYU came out and laid an egg.
Kansas State is coming off of a huge win against No. 20 Arizona that resulted in a Wildcat thumping of . . . well, the Wildcats, 31-7. K-State quarterback Avery Johnson threw for a modest 156 yards and two touchdowns. The Wildcat defense held Arizona to just 56 rushing yards and forced one turnover.
What BYU needs to keep its eye on is Johnson's legs. The young QB ran for 110 yards last week and was borderline dominant in the win. The Cougars have shown themselves to be susceptible to quarterbacks who can scramble through the first three games and if they let him, Johnson will run up and down the field.
Thankfully for BYU, its best unit has been the defense. Can the Cougars keep a potent Kansas State offense at bay? It's going to take a constant push from the defensive line and discipline from the linebackers. If the Cougars can neutralize an elite Wildcat running game and force Johnson to throw that ball, they will have done their job.
On the offensive end, BYU will have to be ready to throw the ball itself. With their first- and second-string running backs still sidelined with injuries, the offense will have to rely on Jake Retzlaff for both ground and air support. The turnover-prone quarterback will need to be a patient thrower but also be prepared to use his legs when the situation calls for it.
It should be a great matchup and an even better atmosphere. Let's get to predictions.
Karter Baughan (3-0) — BYU 27, Kansas State 24
BYU opens against Kansas State this week as a 7-point underdog to the Wildcats. For BYU to win on Saturday, they must neutralize Kansas State's elite rushing attack, force quarterback Avery Johnson to throw the ball and limit turnovers on offense. If they can accomplish these goals, an upset over Kansas State is very feasible. However, if they struggle to contain the Wildcats' ground game, this could get very ugly.
An underrated but crucial factor in this matchup is the intense atmosphere at LaVell Edwards Stadium on Saturday night. BYU has played only one home game this season, against an FCS opponent, making this their first big home contest. With a late kickoff and two undefeated teams facing off in a conference matchup, LaVell Edwards will be rocking on Saturday night. It feels like either Kansas State could win in a blowout, or BYU could pull off the upset. I’m leaning toward BYU upsetting Kansas State at home, going 4-0 on the season, and creating wild expectations in Provo.
Me (2-1) — Kansas State 30, BYU 14
I don't see BYU being able to stop Avery Johnson on the ground. The Cougars have yet to see a run game with half the firepower of Kansas State's and I think it will cost them. Johnson, DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards should have a field day on Saturday. As for BYU's offense, I expect we'll see a similar performance to the SMU game a couple of weeks ago. Turnovers and the lack of a run game will bog down an offense that hasn't faced a formidable defense all season. The underrated part of this game will be the special teams play. BYU has looked shaky at times this season and the Wildcats return-men are no joke. I expect Kansas State to jump out to an early lead before BYU's defense can adjust, and the reality of this season will finally set in. Sorry Cougar fans.
Kevin Humphreys (2-1) — Kansas State 21, BYU 17
This week, much of the focus has been on the two quarterbacks, Jake Retzlaff and Avery Johnson. But Saturday is more about the defense side of the ball for both teams. BYU's and Kansas State’s defenses this season look much improved from last season. Kansas State held Arizona to seven points last week and BYU did not let SMU into the end zone in its 18-15 victory. This game is going to be a physical, low-scoring affair. The Cougars have been unbelievably good in Provo at night, winning 22 of their last 25 contests at home. If BYU wins, they will almost certainly be ranked in the AP Poll next week with all the momentum heading into Big 12 play. Unfortunately for the Cougars, I do not think they can pull off the upset without a healthy running back room, not without LJ Martin. Kansas State makes a goal-line stand late in the fourth quarter to hold on in a wild game in Provo.