It's been a somber and anxious week in Provo after BYU's first loss of the season.
The Cougars' ugly, late-night loss has set up an epic showdown for what could potentially be a lock into the Big 12 championship game. Saturday, No. 14 BYU (9-1) will travel to Tempe to take on No. 21 Arizona State at 1:30 pm on ESPN.
Three months ago, most people would have pegged this game as nothing more than an irrelevant conference game or perhaps even a fight for either program to reach bowl eligibility. Now, people across the country will be tuning in to see not only the fate of these two programs' seasons, but also the fate of the entire Big 12.
The Sun Devils have had an incredible season with an 8-2 record and although they are just now getting national recognition by being ranked, they have been the model of consistency all season long. The biggest reason for this is second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham. Dillingham is an Arizona State alum and offensive guru. After spending time coordinating offenses at Florida State, Auburn and Oregon, he's found himself in his native state of Arizona with his dream job.
The Sun Devils' greatest weapon is, without a doubt, running back Cam Skattebo. The senior back has already recorded over 1,000 rushing yards on the season to go along with his 11 touchdowns. He is third in the country in all-purpose yards, sitting just below 170 a game. He has to be the point of emphasis for BYU's defense.
The good news for the Cougars is that they have already faced most of the conference's top running backs and held them in check. DJ Giddens from Kansas State, RJ Harvey from UCF and Brashard Smith from SMU all rank in the top 10 in all-purpose yards in the country. BYU has found ways to slow each of them down and come away with wins despite the dangerous backfield threats.
Offensively, the Cougars have got to find a way to score in the red zone. Last week, BYU was in the red zone five times and only managed to score one touchdown and 13 points in total. If their problem isn't fixed by Saturday, the Cougars won't have a chance against a Sun Devil team that is sure to put up points at home.
The Cougars also can't afford turnovers, as we saw last week. Arizona State would waste no time capitalizing on excellent field position if given the opportunity.
This game will most likely be fought on the ground and in the trenches, given the Sun Devils' ground attack and the fact that both teams are in the top four in defensive efficiency in the Big 12. I wouldn't expect a lot of points in this one.
So here we have it. The team picked dead last in the preseason Big 12 rankings, taking on the team picked 13th for a chance to go to the Big 12 title game. Let's get to the predictions.
Kevin Humphreys (6-4) — Arizona State 27, BYU 24
It is no secret that BYU’s offense has struggled the last few weeks against some stiff competition. The defense has played well enough to keep BYU in both games against Utah and Kansas. The Cougars won one of those games at the end and lost another. Losing to Kansas almost completely knocked BYU out of a shot at an at-large bid to the College Football Playoff. Saturday is the most important game of the season for BYU, and they will have to play their best if they want to win on the road in Tempe. The Cougars will show up and play one of their best games of the season, but Arizona State is just as desperate, and they have the best player on the field, Cam Skattebo. Arizona State wins on a walk-off field goal and moves into the driver's seat to the Big 12 championship game.
Karter Baughan (5-5) — BYU 31, Arizona State 17
BYU opens as a 3-point underdog at Arizona State this week. If you've been keeping up with our predictions, you'd know that I’ve been picking against BYU for the past month. That changes this week against Arizona State. This Arizona State team has done a great job winning close games this year, as has BYU, but their best win is likely against K-State last week. This team isn’t dominating opponents like Indiana has this season. I love BYU’s chances against the Sun Devils this weekend to get the job done. Retzlaff needs to eliminate the red-zone turnovers. If he can do that, BYU will win comfortably in Tempe.
Me (3-7) — BYU 27, Arizona State 18
I take no pleasure in being right last week, but I am happy that the bit can stop, and I can finally share my true feelings. In what some are calling the ultimate zag, I truly feel like the Cougars have a great bounce-back game and come away with a win on Saturday. There is simply too much at stake and everyone in the building knows it. Arizona State's only losses were to solid defenses and BYU's is the best they've seen by far. I don't see how the Sun Devils can score more than 20 in this game, barring a total defensive collapse from the Cougars. The obvious point of concern is with the offense. The red zone woes have been extensively highlighted, but something tells me that Aaron Roderick will be pulling out all the stops this week and every player on that side of the ball will be laser-focused. BYU gets up big, then lets Arizona State back a little, but it's too late.