The road does not get any easier for No. 11 BYU this weekend as the Cougars will face the UCF Golden Knights in Orlando, Florida.
Despite losing four straight games, UCF will be a difficult matchup for BYU and the Knights are currently a 2.5-point home favorites on Saturday.
Last Friday, BYU football won one of the more memorable games in recent Cougar football history. What on paper should have been an easy win against the Oklahoma State Cowboys turned into a back-and-forth shootout where the Cougars won 38-35.
For the first time all season, BYU's defense needed the offense to bail it out. The Cowboys rushed for 269 yards and converted 9 of 13 on third down and 2 of 2 on fourth down. However, Jake Retzlaff found Darius Lassiter in the final seconds to keep the Cougars' perfect season alive.
In contrast, UCF last played No. 10 Iowa State on Saturday and lost 38-35. If you believe that life and this big spinning rock we call Earth is just a simulation, this evidence will support your case. Both BYU and Iowa State scored game-winning touchdowns in the game's final seconds to win 38-35. UCF and Oklahoma State fell to 3-4 on the season and are on four-game losing streaks. UCF and Oklahoma State are on backup quarterbacks after Alan Bowman and KJ Jefferson have underperformed this season. The parallels are endless and bizarre but will most likely have no impact on this weekend's game — or it will mean everything.
Back to the game, the Knights are rushing for 280 yards per game and scoring 31.3 points per contest this season. Their featured back, RJ Harvey, is 13th in the FBS, averaging 6.7 yards per carry and sixth in rush yards per game at 127.1. Stopping Harvey will be the most crucial task for BYU this weekend on the defensive side of the ball. Backup quarterback Jacurri Brown is also lethal on the ground and has rushed for 8.7 yards per carry on the season and 117 yards per game in his last two starts.
This game will ultimately come down to stopping the run for BYU and playing complementary football, as the Cougars have done all season.
Let’s get to some predictions.
Chase Rogers (2-5) – UCF 30, BYU 20
I said last week that BYU’s biggest weakness was facing a formidable running game and then Ollie Gordon III went off for three touchdowns, and the Cougars nearly fumbled their perfect season. UCF not only has a solid run game, they rely on it for just about everything. The Knights also have a quarterback that is as elite as they come in the ground game. If you recall, last week Rangel had just tore off a 60-plus-yard run before he got hurt. If the Cougars cannot figure out how to stop the Knights on the ground, they won’t be able to win. For BYU’s offense, there are speculations surrounding Jake Retzlaff’s health. I have no idea if they are true or not, but he certainly looked shaken up heading into the locker room at halftime last Friday. The Cougars continue to remain consistent on that side of the ball, but mistakes continue to plague the quarterback position, no matter who is throwing the ball. This is the perfect spot for a letdown, and because of that, I’m going to have to pick against BYU once again.
Karter Baughan (4-3) – UCF 28, BYU 27
I continue to pick against BYU and for the well-being of all BYU fans, I will continue to do so. Vegas clearly does not believe in this BYU team. They are 7-0 with multiple ranked wins by large margins, yet they are still a 2.5-point underdog against a lackluster UCF team starting a backup QB. I'm going to side with Vegas in this weird, warm game in Orlando. Give me UCF 28, BYU 27.
Kevin Humpherys (5-2) – UCF 38, BYU 35
After BYU beat Kansas State, I told myself I would pick BYU until they lost. While it was not a loss to Oklahoma State, the narrow victory certainly rattled my confidence in the Cougars. This UCF team is even better at running football than Oklahoma State and historically, BYU has struggled in the Eastern time zone. That, along with the simulated events from last weekend, leaves me no choice but to pick UCF over BYU by the same score UCF lost by last week.