TEMPE, Ariz. — After a hot 9-0 start, the BYU Cougars now find themselves mired in a two-game skid following back-to-back losses to Kansas and Arizona State.
What was once a simple “win and in” scenario for the Cougars in the quest for both a Big 12 Championship appearance and an at-large playoff bid has now become a more complicated path. Now sitting at 9-2 (6-2 in Big 12 play), BYU’s hopes for the postseason are no longer just in its hands.
The Cougars' 6-2 conference record places them in a chaotic four-team tie with Arizona State, Iowa State and Colorado at the top of the Big 12, with Arizona State holding the tiebreaker over the other three and Iowa State holding the second tiebreaker over BYU and Colorado. If all four teams were to win in the final week, Arizona State and Iowa State would face off in Arlington, with the winner likely receiving an at-large playoff spot.
All is not lost for the Cougars, however.
Though much slimmer than it once was, BYU still has a shot to still make the Big 12 championship. In order for that to happen, the following would need to take place:
- BYU must win its final game against Houston.
AND ONE OF THE FOLLOWING:
- Arizona State loses their final game to Arizona.
- Iowa State loses their final game to Kansas State.
If those conditions are met, BYU would take possession of second place and face, Iowa State, Arizona State or Colorado in the Big 12 championship game, with the winner having a shot at a place in the College Football Playoff. With the Big 12 likely to only get one team into the CFP, the Big 12 championship will be a defacto elimination game for the teams involved.
Though the exact rankings and placements for the final CFP poll can only be speculated, it is assumed the Big 12 champion will be the fourth or fifth highest ranked conference champion, meaning it would receive an auto-bid into the postseason either as the No. 4 seed (and receive a first-round bye) or simply receive a spot in the first round depending on their actual ranking.
The team BYU might end up facing off against in Arlington comes down to a slew of other tie-breaker scenarios, but for the Cougars their path to the championship game is clear.
Regardless of how the CFP picture shakes out, if BYU wants to have any shot at making the postseason the Cougars must win their final game at home against Houston and receive some help from the outside.
They may not fully control their own destiny, but all hope is not lost.