BYU's latest Bracketology appearance: what it means and what’s next

With only ten games left in the regular season, BYU basketball finds itself in a precarious, but optimistic position.

According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, current face of the March Madness prediction model known as Bracketology, the Cougars are barely making March Madness as one of "Last Four In" teams.

Just last week, the Cougars were among Lunardi's "First Four Out," but BYU's 81-75 win over UCF on Saturday was a key reason it's now projected to make the tournament.

Last week, UCF was the last team he projected to make the tournament, but BYU’s recent head-to-head win over the Golden Knights made them fall out of his latest iteration of Bracketology.

On top of that, Nebraska joined BYU as a newcomer after defeating No. 18 Illinois and No. 16 Oregon. Both teams also benefited from North Carolina's losses to No. 2 Duke and fellow "Last Four In" team Pitt.

The win against UCF was also crucial because it was BYU's second "Quad 1" victory of the season.

To get a Quad 1 win, you need to win against a team with a NET rating of 1-30 at home, 1-50 on a neutral site or 1-75 on the road. Wins against teams with lower NET ratings are classified as Quad 2, 3, or 4 depending on how good the team is.

In BYU’s recent road game against UCF, the win was considered a Q1 win because UCF has a NET rating of 64.

Though BYU may have started the season with a good 9-2 record, it lacked any signature wins like this one to compliment it. Across a 11-game nonconference slate, BYU played six Q4 games, three Q3 games and only two combined Q1 and Q2 games, both of which resulted in BYU losses.

Although its overtime loss to No. 25 Ole Miss could be seen as a "good loss," especially since it was against an SEC school, BYU won’t get much credit for its losses. The Cougars will need to have noteworthy wins, like the one they had against UCF, in order to improve its chances at getting an upcoming tournament spot.

Recently, BYU reached its season-high NET rating of 33 after back-to-back Q1 wins over UCF and Baylor, the latter a 83-79 victory at home. The Cougars also added two Q2 wins with victories over Colorado and Cincinnati the previous week.

The win over Baylor, who is ranked No. 27 in the NET, was particularly significant as it marked BYU’s highest-rated victory of the season.

This win streak has been crucial for the Cougars, helping them round into form at the right time and recover from a 2-4 conference record to a 6-4 record. It also has made BYU go from just a fringe team to a team that has drastically improved chances of making the tournament.

It also has given the Cougars four Q1 and Q2 wins after only having one previous Q2 win against Arizona State.

In its next ten games, BYU has seven Q1 matchups, one Q2 game, and two Q3 games, providing even more opportunities to strengthen its case for an at-large bid.

Everyone knew that BYU’s play in the Big 12 would indicate if it could make it to March Madness a second consecutive year, especially with an easier non-conference schedule. If the Cougars avoid a Q3 loss and finish with a .500 record in Q1 and Q2 games, they’ll be in a strong position to make the tournament.

With so many upsets in men’s basketball granting automatic conference bids to teams that wouldn’t otherwise make the tournament, BYU needs to avoid the "Last Four In" category, especially since five bid thieves stole spots from projected teams in last year’s tournament.

If BYU doesn’t win the conference championship for an automatic March Madness bid, it could still realistically make the tournament if it goes 4-4 in Q1/Q2 games, wins both of its Q3 matchups and has an adequate Big 12 conference championship run.

If BYU does better than that, it wouldn’t just secure its second consecutive trip to the big dance, but it could even become a top-5 seed in the tournament.

With its game against Arizona happening real soon on Feb. 4 at 9 p.m., at the Marriott Center, a win would keep BYU’s momentum rolling. It would also be BYU’s first win against a ranked team all year and the new highest rated NET for BYU. Arizona currently has a NET rating of 11.

While the Cougars hope to win every game, that will be challenging with the 22nd toughest remaining schedule in the country. But with March Madness still weeks out, all the Cougars are thinking about is a win against the No. 20 Wildcats.

Photo by Wilson Gustaveson

BYU’s Remaining Schedule:

Q1 Games:

Feb 4: No. 20 Arizona,

Feb 8: @ Cincinnati

Feb 11: @ West Virginia

Feb 18: No. 16 Kansas

Feb 21: @ No. 20 Arizona

Feb 26: Arizona St.

March 4 @ No. 8 Iowa State

Q2 Games:

March 1: West Virginia

Q3 Games:

Feb 15: Kansas State

March 8: Utah