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Utah's population experiences major growth, impacts housing market

Utah’s population is expected to grow by half a million in the next nine years, potentially exacerbating housing issues that Utah officials are currently attempting to address.

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This figure shows the past and projected future of Utah’s population and growth rate. Projections of this nature cannot tell the future with any degree of certainty but can be used to estimate the population size of Utah in the future. (Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute)

This growth is set to put Utah’s population at more than 4 million people in 2033, according to the most recent Utah State and County Short-Term Planning Projection from the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

 In 2022, Utah was ranked the 15th state in terms of domestic destinations for California migrants.

Out of the 41,700 people who moved to Utah in 2022, nearly 18,700 moved to Utah from California, according to the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

“There's definitely a chunk of people moving into the state,” Emily Harris, the senior demographer at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, said. “But the kind of caveat to that is that Californians are moving to a lot of places, and there are just a lot of Californians.”

A larger share of Utah’s in-migrants, or someone moving into Utah from a different state in the US, come from California than from any other one state, Harris said.

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This figure shows the projected population change in each county in Utah. Utah County and Salt Lake County are expected to increase the most in population. (Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute)

Between 2018 and 2022, 23% of the in-migrants from California moved to Salt Lake County, with 21% moving to Utah County, according to a study titled Utah’s California In-Migrants.

Utah’s California in-migrants share many similarities with Utah’s in-migrants from other areas, according to the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. These similarities include age distribution, race and ethnicity, employment status and level of education.

“The people that are moving into Utah are generally highly educated,” Harris said. “A lot of them have at least a bachelor's degree, or they're attending university. They're more racially and ethnically diverse than the existing population here in Utah.”

One of the largest spikes in Utah’s population happened in the mid-2010’s, she added.

“Utah was still considered a relatively affordable place to live,” Harris said. “Housing was kind of recovering from the Great Recession, and interest rates were still pretty low. Housing was still much more affordable than it really has been in the last five or six years.”

In addition to the relatively low price of life in the mid 2010’s, the number of available jobs was a large reason for Utah’s increased net in-migration, Harris said.

David Sims, a professor in BYU’s Department of Economics, said the higher-paying jobs originating from the mid-2010s are bringing in workers from other parts of the US.

“The real driver of the extra growth has been the fact that there's been such a good job market that’s been pulling in people, especially in things like the tech sector and other sectors from states like California,” Sims said.

Over the last 15 years, Utah County has grown faster in proportion to the rest of Utah as a result of people moving into areas like Lehi’s Silicon Slopes for high paying jobs, he said.

In the last 10 years, the median household income for Utah has soared from nearly $60,000 in today’s dollars to nearly $100,000 today, Sims said.

“I don't think people understand how unusual it is for a state to have its median income shoot up this quickly," he said. "It really is kind of remarkable.”
 
A downside of Utah’s increased household median income has been Utah’s raised housing prices. Utah’s job market is likely not an immediate issue for the housing market, Sims said.
 
“Eventually, there might be slowdowns on that side,” Sims said, "but I think that the constraints that wear on housing most immediately are on the side of housing costs and resources.”

Bill Peperone, the development services director for Provo City, said Utah’s housing market is affected by economic factors that are a result of Utah’s population growth.

“All the growth that's we've been having is jacking up the price of housing,” Peperone said. “And wages aren't keeping up with that increased real estate cost, and so that's why we've got an affordable housing crisis.”

Due to rising interest rates, the cost of building materials is high enough that new developments aren’t affordable for developers, Peperone said.

“If the developers were to build those projects, they would be so highly priced, they wouldn't be able to sell," Pepperoni said. "So, they're holding on and waiting till the costs come down that they'll build.”

Because of the conditions of the market and how developers are reacting, Provo City has more than a thousand approved dwelling units that haven’t been built, Peperone said.

In an attempt to help lessen the housing crisis, the state of Utah has passed multiple bills in the last few years to help get more houses to market, Peperone said.

“This is at the front of the State Legislature's mind,” Peperone said. “I think all the cities have planned for significant growth by identifying areas of our cities where growth is most likely to take place, with the most cost-effectiveness in terms of infrastructure.”

The Provo City Council is trying to get more housing built in Provo but also promote more for-sale housing, Peperone said.

Currently, 60% of Provo’s housing stock is rental units, with the remaining 40% being owner occupied, Peperone said.

“For the last five or seven years in Provo, we've been approving about nine apartment units or townhouses for every single-family lot that gets approved," Pepeone said. "So, we're approving a lot more future rental units than owner-occupied.”

While it may take at least 10 years for Utah’s housing market to catch up to Utah’s need for more housing, Peperone said that the Utah State legislature is focused on finding solutions.

“They're constantly talking about housing and how they can help,” Peperone said. “And, I think there are many city councils, like Provo’s, that hear that need and are trying to find ways to solve it.”