By Nate Hawley
A recent string of earthquakes in Nephi has people across the state wondering if the big one is next.
Between March 18 and March 24, 2004, 89 earthquakes rocked the state, according to seismograph stations at the University of Utah. Of the 89 earthquakes reported statewide, 69 of them were concentrated near Nephi, located about 40 miles south of Provo.
'In Utah we experience a number of small earthquakes on a regular basis. What was unusual about last week was that they occurred where people felt them,' said Kris Pankow, a seismologist with the University of Utah.
The Wasatch Fault parallels the west side of the Wasatch Mountains from the Idaho border in the north to central Utah in the south, running through Provo not far from BYU campus.
Pankow said the main fault is not very active near the surface; most of the earthquakes felt along the Wasatch Fault occur on ancillary or secondary faults.
Even though most quakes in Utah are small in magnitude, geologist Gary Christenson said the Wasatch Fault could produce an earthquake up to about 7 or 7.5 on the Richter scale. No earthquakes of this size have occurred since the arrival of the pioneers, but geological evidence indicates they are not uncommon.
'The longer it has been since the last one, the more likely the next one,' Christenson said. 'There is still some disagreement about that, but we do believe in an earthquake cycle where when strain builds up you have an earthquake and it is released, and then takes a while to build up again.'
Experts at both the University of Utah and the Utah Geologic Survey, where Christenson works, say a large earthquake could hit the state in the next 100 years, but they cannot guess when or where the quake may occur.
'We need to realize that we are in a seismically active area and that there is a potential for a large earthquake,' Pankow said. 'The probability of a magnitude 7 somewhere on the Wasatch Fault is 1 in 4 in the next 50 years.'
Because many Utahns do not think of their state as a high earthquake zone like California, earthquake preparedness is not a hot issue. Christenson said it is important to remember an earthquake does not need to be a magnitude 7 to cause damage, but some smaller ones can be dangerous if centered in populated areas.
'Usually you need around a magnitude 5 before you start seeing significant damage,' Christenson said. 'Certainly when you get in the 4 to 5 range a lot more people feel them, and they are scary, but in order to do building damage you need something in the magnitude 5 range.'
The American Red Cross suggests people prepare for the possibility of an earthquake. Taking precautions such as bolting bookcases to the walls, installing latches on all cabinets and strapping the water heater to the studs in the wall can make a difference if disaster does strike.
Garr Judd, executive director of the Red Cross'' Mountain View Chapter, said the organization is prepared to help the local community in the event of any disaster, including large earthquakes.
'We have plans in place and agreement with all the local municipalities on how we would assist them and work in conjunction with their relief efforts,' Judd said. 'These plans are reviewed and tested periodically to make sure they are up to date.'
He suggests each family prepare a disaster kit that holds a battery-powered radio, flashlights, extra batteries, water, food, a first aid kit and sanitation supplies.
'The most important thing for all families is to have a plan,' Judd said. 'For example, find the safest places in each room of the home. Then, have drills to practice with your children. Have an emergency contact outside of the state that everyone can reach if something happens and the family is separated.'
While geologists and seismologists around the world are studying the potential of predicting earthquakes, the science is still limited.
'I can''t say with 100 percent confidence that these are not foreshocks, nor can I say with 100 percent confidence that they are just over,' Pankow said. 'We''ll have to see what happens.'
During an Earthquake
* Drop, cover and hold on! Stay indoors, away from windows, until shaking stops and you are sure it is safe to exit.
* If in bed, hold on and stay there, protecting your head with a pillow.
* If outdoors, find a clear spot away from buildings, trees and power lines; drop to the ground.
* If in a car, find a clear spot and stay inside until shaking stops.
Information taken from the American Red Cross Web site.