By JILL IVIE
The latest census data for the state shows the average size of Utah family units are shrinking faster than the national average, despite predictions of a baby boom occurring over the next decade.
In 1990, the average size of the Utah family was reported at 3.67, exceeding the national average of 3.16. One decade later, Utah's average family size had been reduced to 3.57, compared to the nation's mean of 3.14, according to the Governor's Office of Planning and Budget.
Although state numbers on family size and birthrate continue to rank well above the national average, the size of Utah families is notably falling at a comparatively increased rate.
'Utah is gradually becoming more and more like the nation, but our fertility rate is still much higher than the national average,' said Neil Ashdown, chief economist to the Governor's Office on Families. 'Even though we are moving closer to the national trend, we expect to stay above the national average into the foreseeable future.'
Utah's population historically has followed a circular developmental pattern, experiencing a baby boom phenomenon approximately every 20 years. The nationwide baby boom in the '60s affected Utah particularly hard. The first wave of repercussions hit the state in the '80s when the children born in the two previous decades began having children of their own.
Experts like Tim Heaton, the associate director for the Family Studies Center at BYU, suggest this echo effect is responsible for the decreasing family size. Heaton and others predict Utah's family size will follow the previous population trends and begin to pick up once the third-generation baby boomers begin having children of their own.
'We had a largely agrarian economic base at one time,' Ashdown said. 'Typically, family sizes are larger in agrarian-based economies, and as they become more industrialized, family sizes typically decrease.'
Between 1990 and 2000, an influx of first-generation international immigrants came to Utah. These first-generation families are typically larger than the average American family, and typically decrease in size with each generation. The number of international immigrants to the state is expected to noticeably affect the numbers in the future.
'Utah still has the highest birth rate in the nation,' said Cynthia Robison, research assistant at the Center for Health Data with the Vital Records and Statistics Department. 'This has fluctuated in the past few years, but not by much.'
In 2002, Utah had 49,140 total births. This resulted in a birth ratio of 21.0 for the state, significantly higher than the 13.9 birth ratio for the nation. Ratios are used to calculate birth and death rates by multiplying total births by 1,000 and dividing by the total population.
Despite the shrinking size of Utah families, maintaining numbers well above the national average is expected to severely impact the state's education system over the next decade.
Joining the 7,160 new students expected to enroll in the upcoming school year, a predicted excess of 140,000 new students will register in the Utah public education system over the next ten years.
'Regardless of family size, the projections are that we will see many new students enroll in the schools,' said Mark Mickelsen, director of communications for the Utah Education Association. 'We're not facing any great decline in students, we're facing an increase.'
Significant growth is projected for Alpine and Jordan school districts and in areas surrounding St. George. Utah schools are already plagued by financial hardships. A lack of funding has recently resulted in stalled pay increases for experienced teachers, increased class sizes and eliminated programs in several districts.
The increased financial strain on the state's education system will be a serious cause for concern if baby boom projections come true.
'The state is at a critical point where people who are making decisions in the legislature need to determine what is going to be best for public schools in the state,' Mickelsen said. 'The two things that need to be looked at are corporate tax structure and revamping the current tax structure in the state, so more money will go to the schools where it is needed.'
The future of Utah's demographic makeup will be determined in the next decade. Whether Utah's families continue to shrink, immigrants keep influencing population trends or the needs of the education system continue to be overlooked, changes will be necessitated by the evolving needs of the state's upcoming generation.
'You try to plan ahead for it,' Ashdown said. 'If you can, you try to prepare your system for it, but most of the time issues come before policy makers on a yearly basis. They understand projections but they know that those projections might not come true. Our young, educated work force is one of Utah's greatest assets. We know we have a comparative advantage compared to other states, and we want to make sure that work force is educated and continues being productive.'