JERRY M. GOWE
Partisanship and Bill Clinton's unpopularity. These two issues best explain the defeat of Bill Orton in Utah's 3rd Congressional District, according to the results of the KBYU/Utah Colleges Exit Poll.
'In 1996, Chris Cannon's campaign ... garnered 74 percent of the 3rd District's Republican vote,' said Anna Nibley, a political science major from Provo.
In his three successful races for Congress prior to 1996, Orton had garnered an average of 44 percent of the Republican vote by crafting an image of an independent willing to vote against his party on matters like NAFTA.
'It was Orton's ability to get Republicans to defect and vote for him that was most remarkable,' said David Magleby, a BYU political science professor.
Nibley said Orton has always done well among the district's few Democrats. In 1994, 95 percent of strong Democrats, 87 percent of not-so-strong Democrats, and 88 percent of Independent Democrats voted for Orton.
According to the KBYU Exit Poll, a majority of voters say they voted for their candidate based on issues, not party identification. Only 13 percent said they voted because of party identification.
'This phenomenon can be attributed to the fact that Cannon played up traditional Republican issues in his campaign like welfare reform, states' rights and a balanced budget,' Nibley said.
Results of the exit poll explained this Republican shift to Cannon in 1996 by citing the success the Cannon campaign had in linking Orton to President Clinton. Of the 28 percent who believed Orton's views were too close to Clinton's, 92 percent voted for Cannon.
'Clinton also did not help Orton when he did not consult with the delegation on his designation of the Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument in Orton's district,' Nibley said.
Of the 54 percent of voters who thought the monument cost Utah jobs, 64 percent voted for Cannon. Of the 32 percent who thought the monument was necessary to preserve wilderness, 74 percent voted for Orton.
'While Orton maintains his opposition to the monument, claiming to support his constituents' feelings, voters may have been unable or unwilling to separate Orton's position from his party link to President Clinton,' said Brian Blake, a political science student working with the KBYU Exit Poll.
The KBYU Exit Poll also concluded that despite what voters considered to be negative campaigning on the part of Cannon, his campaign wasn't enough to isolate him from the public vote.
'Thirty-nine percent of all voters thought that Cannon's campaign was more negative than Orton's,' Blake said.
Cannon also had the funds with which to push his attack, spending in excess of $1.7 million, according to his campaign headquarters. This is compared to Orton's reported $400,000.
Blake said although voters saw the negative campaigning, it did not greatly impact their choice of candidates.