This BYU season has started as well as it could, and no matter what anyone says, no one saw it coming.
Heading into week five, the Cougars find themselves 4-0 and ranked No. 22 in the country. On the other hand, Baylor is coming off of a devastating loss to Colorado and looking to bounce back at home against a ranked opponent.
It's no secret that the Bears have struggled over the past few years, and head coach Dave Aranda has perhaps one of the hottest seats in college football right now. BYU matches up with them well. Subpar quarterback play and a below-average run game from Baylor should be a recipe for success for this dominant Cougar defense.
The Bears are already on their second quarterback this season after benching the day-one starter in favor of Sawyer Robertson — a Junior who hasn't thrown over 250 yards in his collegiate career.
Baylor averages 167 rushing yards a game on an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Those numbers don't really impress, but the ground game has been the Bears' bread and butter all season, accounting for most of their offensive production.
It's nothing BYU's defense hasn't seen, or frankly, suffocated already this season. The Cougars are No. 6 in the country in pass defense, allowing just 4.4 yards a throw, and have faced more formidable quarterbacks this season.
The one chink in this immaculate defensive armor is the run defense, particularly the quarterback runs. Last week, Avery Johnson scooted for just under seven yards per carry, and the Wildcat offense ran for well over 200 yards. Heading into Baylor, this BYU defense needs to slow down what the Bears do best.
On offense, the Cougars showed last week that if they can take care of the ball and find some momentum on the ground, they can put up points on a stout defense. The key of course will be quarterback Jake Retzlaff making smart decisions and refraining from turning the ball over.
Both teams are coming off incredible performances on special teams. Baylor was able to score on the Buffs last week thanks to an impressive return game, which gave the Bears optimal field position all night long. BYU has now scored a special teams touchdown on back-to-back weeks for the first time (you can thank some very scrupulous research for this) in a long time.
The Cougars have to be focused this week in what is truly the ultimate let-down spot for them. If you believe in superstitions, then you'll be scared to hear that BYU's record is 9-14 in day games over the last five years. Kalani Sitake and his staff will need to mentally prepare the team against what is sure to be an aggressive Baylor team looking to bounce back after a terrible collapse last week.
Here are the predictions for the week.
Kevin Humphreys (2-2) — BYU 27, Baylor 24
The Cougars win their first daytime game against an FBS opponent since 2022. BYU’s defense has been too good this season for me to pick against them until proven otherwise. Jake Retzlaff showed real growth last week and managed the game to perfection. All Retzlaff has to do on Saturday is play complementary football, and BYU will walk away with a win in Waco. There are some concerns about a big game hangover from BYU. However, after all the offseason talk about how this BYU team won’t win more than four games, the Cougars won’t get caught sleeping this Saturday morning against a Baylor team that is teetering on the edge of a cliff. After last week's devastating loss to Colorado, the hot seat for the Bears head coach Dave Aranda is hotter than the summer Texas sun, which many Bears fans would gladly shoot him into. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake will be dancing his way into the bye week 5-0, with a bowl game in his back pocket and his program rising to heights no one saw coming this season.
Karter Baughan (3-1) — Baylor 28, BYU 21
BYU opens as a 3.5-point underdog against Baylor, despite Baylor's recent heartbreaking loss to Coach Prime and Colorado on a Hail Mary. BYU, on the other hand, just dominated Kansas State at home. This line doesn’t make any sense, which is exactly why I’m picking Baylor. When an unranked home team is favored against a ranked opponent, you always bet on the unranked squad. The line feels off, BYU’s defense is strong, and Baylor isn’t particularly elite in any position group. But Vegas clearly knows something we don’t. BYU’s hype is at an all-time high, and this is often when the train derails, especially with an 11 a.m. kickoff on the road. Plus, the Cougars still haven’t won a Big 12 road game.
Me (2-2) — Baylor 19, BYU 15
I've been somewhat of a negative Nancy over the past few weeks, and I must say I'm not quite ready to change my ways. BYU has proven me wrong so far, but with everyone now jumping on the wagon, I think it's the perfect time to zag. The Cougars are historically awful in day games, and I 100% believe in stuff like that. I think BYU will start out flat and have no juice on offense, and a ramped-up Baylor team will come to play in front of a home crowd. From what we've seen so far, this Cougar offense does not travel. I expect some turnovers to reintroduce themselves to Jake Retzlaff on Saturday. On the defensive end, I still expect a stellar performance, but silly offensive mistakes will put the Bears in great field position, and they will capitalize. The Cougars will find a rhythm offensively towards the very end of the game, but it will ultimately not be enough. BYU walks out of Waco no longer a ranked team.