How BYU matches up with Texas in round of 64 of NCAA tournament

PORTLAND, Ore. — Fresh off a historic season, AJ Dybantsa added his name to rare company Tuesday, earning First-Team AP All-American honors.

Dybantsa was joined by fellow freshmen Cameron Boozer and Darius Acuff Jr., along with JT Toppin and Yaxel Lendenborg, to round out the five-man list.

Through the season, Dybantsa has produced at a national player of the year level, averaging 25.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game while carrying BYU’s offense with a 33% usage rate.

The honor places him in exclusive territory in Provo.

Only two players in program history, Danny Ainge (1981) and Jimmer Fredette (2011), had previously earned AP First-Team All-American recognition. Neither did it as a freshman.

It should be noted that both Ainge and Fredette went on to win National Player of the Year in their respective seasons.

Dybantsa now enters that conversation, with Boozer and Acuff expected to be his primary competition for the award. For now, though, his focus stays where it’s been since the preseason, when he said a national championship was the only goal, and that hasn’t changed.

In a recent appearance on the “Winning Formula Pod,” Dybantsa made it clear how he views the opportunity in front of him.

“I’ve got to go win six,” he said.

The numbers show how difficult that path is. According to ESPN’s FPI metrics, BYU only has a 23% chance to reach the Sweet 16 and a 9.3% chance to make the Elite Eight.

That journey starts with the Texas Longhorns, who are coming off a 68-66 win over NC State on Tuesday night.

What to expect from Texas:

Coming into the tournament, the Longhorns weren’t exactly trending upward.

They had lost five of six to close the regular season and ended up in the First Four, but found a way to survive, slipping past N.C. State to keep their season going.

On paper, however, the matchup with BYU is tighter than it might look.

Texas can score, sitting in the top 35 nationally at 82.2 points per game, but it gives a lot back on the other end.

The Longhorns are in the 200s in points allowed (76.4 ppg) and allow opponents to shoot 45 % from the field.

The way Texas gets its offense is different, though. There’s not much playmaking. Four players average at least 13 points per game, but none average more than three assists, and as a team, they rank 298th nationally in assists at 11.8 per game.

That puts the focus on veteran guards like Dylan Swain and Tramon Mark, who are comfortable playing downhill and living in one-on-one situations.

The front court matchup will also be a key factor.

BYU’s Keba Keita brings activity and athleticism, but he’s giving up size against Matas Vokietaitis, a true seven-footer who’s been highly efficient, averaging nearly 16 points per game on 62% shooting.

How can BYU have success offensively?

It starts with how teams have guarded Dybantsa all season. He’s going to see bodies, and Texas will almost certainly send help early and often. That’s nothing new, and it’s where BYU can lean into what’s worked.

If Texas is going to overcommit, the reads are there. Their defensive numbers suggest those rotations aren’t always clean, which opens the floor for shooters. That’s where Alexsej Kostic and Kennard Davis come in. Both have been shooting it well lately, and this sets up as a game where they should get clean looks off kickouts.

There’s also an opportunity to attack off the bounce.

Robert Wright III should get his fair share of one-on-one situations with all the attention Dybantsa will receive.

He’s one of the most effective downhill guards in the country, getting more than 63% of his shots in the paint, and against a defense that gives up penetration, those drive-and-kick sequences should be there.