As of Wednesday morning, BYU is ranked No. 22 in the AP poll and is projected as a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi.
Tuesday night’s win at Baylor adds a Quad 1 victory to BYU’s résumé, its fifth of the season. The Cougars are now 5–6 in Quad 1 games after ending a five-game losing streak following a 4–1 start.
But what is their ceiling? Are their flaws fixable, or are they destined to limit how far BYU can go?
Q: Is the defense fixable?
A: No.
Why: To put it bluntly, BYU’s defense can’t stop a nose bleed. Through 11 conference games, the Cougars are allowing 82 points per game (329th nationally) on 47% shooting from the field (284th). The offense is scoring nearly 84 points per game, but the margin is thin.
For reference, last season BYU gave up 73 points per game in conference on 43% shooting, while averaging 79 points offensively. The drop-off is significant.
At this point, the sample size is too large to ignore. BYU is a bad defensive team.
Personnel is a major factor. Last year’s team had defensive depth in players like Mawot Mag and Trey Stewart. As lineups settled, the defense improved, leading to late-season wins over Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State.
Those players are gone, and the defensive intensity isn’t there. BYU’s three best players are offense-first options carrying heavy workloads, and the defensive end has suffered as a result.
That reality caps the ceiling. BYU can outscore teams like Baylor and, more than likely, Colorado on Saturday, but against Arizona, Iowa State, and Texas Tech — likely top-four seeds — trying to win shootouts isn’t a sustainable model for success.
Q: Can anyone on the bench provide a spark?
A: I highly doubt it
Why: Let’s be clear. Offense is not the issue for BYU. The Cougars are averaging roughly 86 points per game and have scored 90 or more nine times this season.
The issue is depth. BYU’s bench production is nowhere near what it was a year ago, and the offensive load on Rob Wright III, AJ Dybantsa, and Richie Saunders has contributed to multiple close losses.
Last season, BYU’s bench averaged 30.1 points per game, ranking 12th nationally. This year, that number has dropped to 11.8 points per game, which ranks 352nd in the country, and it falls to around eight points per game during conference play.
The tradeoff is top-end talent. BYU is more talented at the top of the roster than it was last season with the additions of Dybantsa and Wright III. But the lack of reliable bench contributors forces the "Big 3" to carry a heavy offensive burden.
That imbalance shows up late in games. Against top-tier opponents, the margin tightens, fatigue sets in, and close losses follow.
Q: So what is the ceiling?
A: Probably the second weekend.
Why: BYU’s flaws are not minor. They’re structural. The defense is not just inconsistent; it’s bad, and at this point in the season it’s not fixable. You don’t suddenly become a competent defensive team in February when the numbers have looked the same for upwards of two months.
That said, that doesn’t mean BYU can’t win in March.
With this offense, it can beat almost anyone on the right night. If shots are falling and the game turns into a shootout, it can win a first-round game and maybe a second, depending on the matchup.
But the same issues that allow the Cougars to win also make them fragile. When shots aren’t falling, there’s no consistent defensive presence to keep them in games.
Against disciplined, efficient teams, especially at the top of the bracket (as we have seen with Houston, Kansas and Arizona), that shows up fast.
The ceiling is there.
This team has to play a very specific game to win, and that is a tough way to survive and advance.