Researchers shake Utah

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    By GRETCHEN WILSO

    Salt Lake City’s probability of experiencing a major earthquake of seven or above magnitude in the next 100 years has increased from 30 percent to 57 percent, researchers told the Utah Seismic Safety Commission on Tuesday.

    S. P. Nishenko, research associate at the University of Colorado Natural Hazards Research Center in Boulder, Colo., and J.P. McCalpin of GEO-HAZ Consulting, Inc. in Estes Park, Colo. conducted the research commissioned by the U.S. Geological Survey. The study will be published in the March edition of the Journal of Geophysical Research.

    Nishenko explained that the Wasatch fault is divided into segments. The Salt Lake City segment experiences a major earthquake about every 1,400 years. The last one was 1,300 years ago.

    Nishenko said an earthquake of magnitude seven could devastate a city. He compared Salt Lake City to Kobe, Japan, which experienced an earthquake of magnitude seven on Jan. 17, 1995. 6,000 people died in the quake and damages were $100 billion.

    “Kobe and Salt Lake City have similar settings. They are sister cities,” Nishenko said. “A magnitude seven earthquake in Salt Lake City could cause 7,600 deaths, 44,000 injuries and $6 billion in loss of jobs and economic activity. I’m leaving town tonight,” Nishenko joked.

    Jim Springer, public information officer for the Utah Geological Survey, compared the new findings to a gun.

    “The gun is loaded in Salt Lake City. We don’t know when nature will pull the trigger,” he said.

    The Provo segment experienced a major earthquake 600 years ago. For the next 100 years, the segment has only a 1 to 5 percent chance of a major earthquake occurring.

    Leslie Youd, chairman of the USSC and professor of civil and environmental engineering at BYU, said residents of the Wasatch Front are partially prepared for a major earthquake.

    “Most people understand there is an earthquake hazard here. They have food and water storage. But some buildings are not earthquake resistant,” Youd said.

    Youd said the cost for earthquake resistance in new buildings is about 2 to 5 percent of the total cost of the building.

    “It may cost more to replace the carpet,” Youd said. “Older buildings can be upgraded to meet higher building standards, but the process is expensive.”

    Some buildings on campus do not reach higher building standards, said Fred Nelson of Risk Management and Safety.

    “The Benson Building meets higher building codes, and the Wilkinson Center and Eyring Science Center are being upgraded,” Nelson said.

    Youd said when constructing new buildings The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints doesn’t skimp on codes. He said a thorough check of the buildings on campus needs to be done, but to his knowledge has not occurred.

    The USSC commissioned a plan outlined to reduce earthquake losses. A Strategic Plan for Earthquake Safety in Utah includes three strategies: improving earthquake resistance of state-owned buildings, measuring strong earthquake ground shaking and improving earthquake awareness and education.

    Nishenko gave suggestions in preparing for a major earthquake.

    “Strap down water heaters, know how to turn off your gas, keep emergency supplies and make emergency plans,” he said.

    Youd suggests keeping a 72-hour emergency kit, fire extinguishers and first-aid supplies on hand.

    “We need to make earthquakes part of our culture,” Nishenko said. “The responsibility is in our own hands. We need to heighten people’s awareness, this is a disaster waiting to happen. Large earthquakes have occurred in the past and will continue to occur.”

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